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My Pandemic. A Lock-Down Journal in New Zealand, Day 3

Saturday, March 28th, 2020

I woke up to the heavenly scent of freshly baked bread.

Yet the reality is not that heavenly at all…

Being a Saturday, this was my first day at home with no work. I thought I’d be able to do a lot, but in fact I did next to nothing. Following the news, chatting to friends, a bit of cooking, that’s pretty much all of it.

I was glad to read in the morning an article by a senior lecturer at Massey University in Auckland, Steve Elers, who shares my opinion that New Zealand’s Government is incompetent and stepped in too late – https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120581185/antivirus-measures-are-too-late-to-stop-needless-sickness-and-economic-pain. I guess history will tell, but before that there will be bodies to count.

The fortress we are trying to build by locking down at the very last moment might prove to be just a sand castle. Whatever it is, we now need to get in behind our leaders, respect and preserve democracy, as the tough times are yet to come.

We are now sitting ducks, and many of us are yet in denial or too naive to undestand what’s actually going on. The number of cases in our country is now 451. A week ago it was only 20! Three weeks ago 5 and merely a month ago we had none (confirmed). Is our memory so short? People are going to the beach, playing touch rugby in the park, there’s car and bike traffic like on an Easter Weekend. This is not your seasonal cold. Why don’t you get it? It’s like going to Africa and when a lion charges towards you, you just smile and go “just another cat, whatever”…

I haven’t been out for three days, not even to buy milk. We still have enough to get by and I understand supermarkets have long cues. In a way, if I had the disease now and I became critical, perhaps it would be good timing, as hospitals still have plenty of room. But if I get it now, chances are that I might feel seriously ill around the peak of the wave and then I’d be just another number.

My kids came home today from their mother’s house, driven by my wife who goes out for work. They saw nobody wearing masks and plenty of cars in the streets, with just one policeman on a motorbike. I am planning to create a mini-golf 9-hole course outside but the children are too busy on their electronic devices and this time around I really encourage that, as they communicate and play with their colleagues. But I can’t stop thinking that we should have closed our island borders a month ago and my kids could still go to school instead of having their childhood and development age fractured by uncertainty.

Enough for today. It’s a weekend night that feels like shit, to be fair, and it’s not really my shit, but I have to accept and put up with it. In a few days, it will hit the fan.

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My Pandemic. A Lock-Down Journal in New Zealand, Day 2

Saturday, March 28th, 2020

Pressing the RESET button on all we used to know, on all we used to do, on all we used to be.

It’s like God or some unknown entity, be it Terrestrial or not, has this button and decides to reset humankind again after 100 years since the Spanish Flu.

Here in my own “bubble” I spent today working and looking out the window. There were more cars, more bikes, more people running or walking, it seemed like “back to normal within not quite normal” and I thought that the restrictions should be tougher and should be really enforced. Why should you be allowed to drive kilometres away from your home just to do you jogging routine in a nicer park or why should you go across town to walk your dog? What’s wrong with exercising in your immediate neighbourhood? Actually, in New Zealand most properties should be large enough for a stroll, as most have outdoor areas.

My wife went to her work and back. She saw no police car, but plenty of vehicles out and about. I know it was only the second day of our national quarantine, but we either do this or we don’t, there is no grey area. I would expect police with loudspeakers to be present and to enforce this lock-down a bit harder.

I detect in the official media the insinuation of the idea that the lock-down might take longer. I also detect that there is virtually no free voice to challenge some of the actions (or the inaction) of the Government.

People here still don’t get it!

More, many more cases in New Zealand today, a total of 368, with 85 new and one in intensive care for the first time. Yet people still don’t get it. We (some, too many) have this mentality:

  • It’s just a flu
  • It won’t affect me because I’m young and strong
  • It’s not here yet
  • It will be over in a couple of weeks.

This mentality will kill many and some of the dead will be close to us, some might be us. It’s like standing casually on the railway waiting for the freight train to run you over and saying “there’s not such a thing like e freight train”. Well, it actually is and it goes quite fast through Italy, Spain, the US and other places right now.

Of course, our country is isolated. That’s the general feeling – isolation will protect us. But I am afraid it won’t, because we used to be a hub for tourism, tenths of thousands of Kiwis returned form overseas in the past two months (largely unchecked), not to mention the international visitors and people on student or work visas, of which about 100,000 are understood to be trapped here (for their good, maybe). I give you a simple calculation:

  • About 80,000 people came to NZ after the outbreak in China, but during the outbreaks in Iran and Europe, plus North America and Australia.
  • No clear restrictions were in place, though quarantine had been imposed for the first arrivals from Wuhan, China.
  • Assuming that only 1% of the returnees in February and March were infected, which could be an underestimation, we might have 800 vectors roaming around NZ for a month or so.
  • If a contagion rate of only 1 to 1 (much lower than the actual spread of the Covid-19) occurred, we are facing at least 1600 loose cases, new vectors in the community. The cat has been out of the bag for too long and there might be many kittens in your neighbourhood already.

Apart from this, we are starting a fashion enterprise at home. My wife makes face masks and I market them. They won’t be cheap, as it takes about one hour to make one and they won’t offer much protection, maybe just psychological.

I’d rather see that RESET button be pushed again, so I can wake up and forget this nightmare altogether before the H A R D part hits us like a tonne of bricks. It could be just a matter of days.

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My Pandemic. A Lock-Down Journal in New Zealand, Day 1

Friday, March 27th, 2020

Here we go!

I knew it and I expected it but somehow I was hoping that it will never come.

The first day of total lock down was easier than I thought due to work keeping me SO BUSY at home. Which was good. I didn’t stop for much food, it’s hard to have lunch when you have to cook & work, work & cook. Not to mention that these circumstances are not quite inviting, so I just had snacks. During my breaks I tried to improve my little improvised office, which is in the lounge, facing the street through two corner windows guarded by shades created by horizontal blinds. (I never paid attention to these details, I never looked out these windows much.)

What I could see in the street was 100% silence till about midday. Only my neighbour immediately across the fence decided to cut some trees with his chainsaw, not for long, just during my audio calls with the rest of my team. In the afternoon there was a massive invasion of cars (going shopping?), people walking (one of them wearing just socks), and bikers (more than I thought would be safe – but this country has a recent culture of positive discrimination towards bike-lovers). I also saw a courier doing a home-delivery. None of these people were wearing masks.

I stopped working to listen to the official announcements. One was significant, though the information was inserted in between redundant repeats (sorry for my oxymoron) of the same measures put in place. They have rationed subsidised medication, so, in essence, if you are sick, potentially old and surely vulnerable, you have to go out more often, thus being more exposed to this plague. To me, this indicates a clear shortage of supplies, maybe not now, but soon.

In fact, I expect more products to be rationalised and more restrictions to be imposed in the next few days. They have to sell these tough measures to us one at a time, to make them more palatable. Kiwis are used to a lot of freedom and this government (not my favourite in times of peace, but the only one to follow in times of war) has to tighten the noose more and more. Why? Because we are simply about to be hit by the tidal wave of infection.

Today we got to a total of 283 cases. It grows about 100% every two days. Still manageable, offering more time for preparations. In the South Island we only have 69 confirmed infections and no apparent cluster, while in the North there are at least two centres with clear community contamination. The cat is out of the bag and it has been like this for three weeks, I guess. We are part of an experiment, it almost feels like we are.

My wife has started on home-made face masks. Of course, we don’t have any special filters, so she is just using fabric. But the design is exceptional! It takes about one hour to make a mask, so we won’t be mass-producing but only save these unique creations for fashion shows.

Before I go to bed, just some quick considerations on what’s happening internationally: it is very clear to me that the World leaders have absolutely no clue, they throw money at this crisis left, right and centre, but they themselves get infected (Prince Charles confirmed positive). Money won’t run out, juts more of it will be printed. All symptoms of pre-war depression are there. We’ll see food rations or at least a huge reduction in the variety of products available to buy. Essential goods will be either short, or very valuable, or both.

In a war you don’t want to kill the enemy. No. A dead enemy gives you 1 point. You have to wound the enemy. A wounded enemy gives you 10 points because you take 1 soldier out of action and another group of 4 other soldiers to carry him, 1 driver to the hospital and a medical team of 4 there. Is this by design?

That’s me for today. Good night!

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My Pandemic. A Lock-Down Journal in New Zealand, Day Zero

Wednesday, March 25th, 2020

Really?

Is this really happening?

What I am intrigued by is not that the lock-down is actually implemented. I am surprised and somewhat comforted by the way my fellow citizens are acting.

I think (almost) everybody is taking this seriously and it might actually work, at least in Christchurch, where we had a series of earthquakes about ten years ago and we are still licking our wounds after them. But we are prepared. Almost all the people I know, all I interact with, the ones I saw today, be them shoppers or cashiers, authorities or kids, boy racers or joggers, they all got the message that this is SERIOUS and we can help INDIVIDUALLY to ride the wave. I have the feeling that our society is mature and deserves to survive this with as few scars as possible.

It ain’t easy, though. Not a walk in the park. Most of our daily liberties we always took for granted are now restricted or cancelled.

My expectation is that in New Zealand the peak of the first wave of the Covid-19 will be around the 15th of April 2020. The number o confirmed cases by then could be anywhere between 1500 and 5000, depending on the number of tests and patients who see a doctor. It sounds like a lot, but actually it would be quite reasonable. Our health system is small, yet advanced, skilled and well prepared. We can fight this and win.

There might be a regional lag, as communities in the North Island, mainly Auckland, are denser and the South Island is more suitable for proper isolation.

Today I worked from home, it was an influx of positive feedback from people I am normally in touch with. I managed to get out of the house in the afternoon, but virtually all non-grocery shops were closed. later, in the evening, I planted a New Zealand flag in the middle of my front lawn. And my house is covered in Christmas lights, though we are approaching Easter.

Entering this phase in 25 minutes – COMPLETE LOCK DOWN.

My kids are with their mother for the moment. It’s been a relief to find out that children of separated parents can stay alternatively with both mum and dad, in the same town. State of Emergency this time around has some human touch.

Today is still Day Zero. I look forward to Day 1 and to AT LEAST four weeks of house arrest / home detention / self isolation. A lot of gardening to do, shame this virus decided to come before winter, not to mention that many viruses actually like to have it cold.

Over & out, I have to feel the transition to state of emergency, as it happens.

11 minutes left.

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