Mark my words!
Based on the current Alert Level settings, intended changes and operational structure continuity, before the 15th of September 2020 we are bound to have new community cases of Covid-19 in the South Island of New Zealand.
I am not launching any conspiracy theory here, I am just observing the facts.
Let’s see where we are coming from:
THE TRIPLE ISOLATION OF NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand got triple lucky, yet nearly managed to miss all these three chances:
- ISOLATED LANDMASS – NZ is an island nation, as far away from the rest of the World as it can possibly be. However, we closed (somewhat) the borders only after we had cases of Covid-19 in the country and days after we put the population in lock-down.
- ISOLATED COMMUNITIES – NZ is largely made of remote communities (cities, townships, farming areas, little villages) created on the demographic bases of the agricultural-industrial development, therefore distances and natural barriers are a fact. However, we entered and survived through “the first lock-down” all at the highest level of restrictions, while new returnees to the country were allowed for a while to travel up to 500 kilometres (enough for the whole countryside to be in reach of an international airport) and “self-isolate” themselves with now control. When isolation became mandatory, large hotels, mainly in the middle of the dense populated areas were chosen and the testing regime lagged behind!
- ISOLATED HOUSEHOLDS – With the exception of some metropolitan residential pockets, most of NZ’s families live in stand-alone houses on their own piece of land or share a common driveway, but not often a stairway or elevator. Transmission risk is minimal here, unless you go to pub, school, church – often in this order! However, the very tight nucleus of the family dwelling could be penetrated by the lack of testing of the personnel working at the borders and in various quarantine facilities in the morning and going home afterwards.
It is said that NZ had 102 Covid-free days in community. This must have been pure luck, unlikely miracle, lack of testing or all of the above. After the presumed 102 days of being “the envy of the World” in terms of anti-Covid apparent actions and perceived results, we get a cluster which has a few interesting characteristics:
a) unknown origin – are there any other clusters like it?
b) erupting in the denser and poorer suburbs of Auckland – hard to tell exactly when did it start and how widely spread it is!
c) some portions of the affected population refuse to be tested due to their uncertain immigration status – this problem seems to be compounded by the lack of communication skills some potential cases have, as their voice is probably often heard only through ethnic and/or religious leaders, via adaptive interpretation.
MEANWHILE IN POLITICS…
The Opposition, or at least most of it, seem to agree with the Government’s course of action – ELIMINATION – Covid-19 be doomed!!! Yet the elections are looming, the current PM has enough political capital to build a Chinese Wall out of dead viruses and discarded test kits all around out lovely islands, while Arden’s main opponents just want to see her gone without really being prepared to take the bull by the horns.
Every day exposes a new blunder at the border, in quarantine, in testing results or reporting, etc.
Every day the population is being advised, patronised, pampered, bribed, comforted, miss-informed, threatened, gathered together, brought apart, opinion-measured, lead to believe what’s OK to believe, scared by economical collapse, saved from economical collapse, ignored – really. Masked and unmasked.
MEANWHILE IN THE TERRITORY…
F A C T S :
- Auckland is going to be opened to the rest of the country on Monday the 31st of August 2020.
- (South) Auckland has the only known cluster in the community and this cluster is growing, not slowing down, according to the most recent numbers.
- Testing records show bigger and bigger numbers, yet testing protocols and strategy seem to be missing the most at-risk transmitters (people who ignore or don’t even get informed about rules of hygiene and have no understanding of prophylactic action or movement tracing).
- When (IF???) Auckland is opened to the rest of the country on Monday the 31st of August, the virus will do what it knows best – it will spread. Where? Into the pristine communities with little or no previous exposure.
- South Island is at risk and I dare say Queenstown, with its touristic attractions but relative lack of health facilities will be at a higher risk than most. Also, Christchurch, with vulnerable demographic groups, and a high number of retirement units, is likely to suffer. (Moving from winter into summer, all becomes more virulent – I should say “viral”. We can see a true second wave. For some, it is really important to see this wave only after the elections.)
It will take at least one week until some South Island locals will feel “symptomatic”. It will also depend how soon they will be tested.
Hence my predictions that the South Island could fall by the 15th of September. If it does, it will be the obvious responsibility of the Arden Cabinet, as they had all the information and all the means to prevent it.
Yet something can be done and it is not too late to stop this dire course of events:
Isolate South Auckland on Alert Level 3 + Put the rest of Auckland on Alert Level 2 with restriction on mass-gatherings and masks in public places/transport + Keep the rest of the North Island on Alert Level 2 with little restriction of gatherings and no mandatory masks unless cases are detected + Take the South Island to Alert Level 1 + Restrict people’s movement between the two main islands + Direct all international arrivals to Auckland.
Of course, all these measures should be put in place by a Grand Coalition Government, as our lives, public health, livelihoods, national economy, political stability, ethnic harmony and international security could be and will be at risk during these complex times.
I hope to be proven wrong in two weeks from now.
Perhaps some of you will think I am just launching theories. Fair enough. Yet I did predict all this back in February, as some of you might remember – https://www.mockoblog.com/?paged=4
