mockoblog

Ten days into the protest movements, there are more questions than answers around the Tahrir Square in Cairo and indeed in the whole Arab World.

The Egyptian popular uprising has the characteristics of a revolution, and a bloody one, too. Sides are starting to appear clearer out of the smoke of petrol bombs and a power vacuum is opening between the main three parts involved in this street conflict. But who exactly are these three parts and what are they doing right now?

1. The anti-government protesters, conquerors of the Square, are turning from peaceful demonstrators to a more violent and better organized civil army – one can only assume they are representing most layers of the Egyptian society and that they would be mainly Muslims.
2. The pro-government street movement, the anti-demonstrators, the ones who apparently created the first disturbances by blocking the entrance to the Square in an attempt to cut-off supplies to the protesters – they are thought to include policemen in plain clothes and to be acting on orders from the Mubarak regime, but it is more likely that they would be lower echelons of the power who ruled Egypt for sixty years, people who have a lot to lose once the 82 year old President steps down (or is ousted). The only proof that there was any government interference in organizing the anti-demonstration is Vodafone’s statement that its network was used to send certain messages (allowed by the mobile phone operator due to some legal implications).
3. The Army – a bumper between the two belligerent parties, yet an overwhelmed, inefficient and undecided one, as the orders come vertically from the official structure of command while the soldiers in the street are, at an individual level, close to the mob around them. The Army holds the key for the future of Egypt as long as it exists as a monolithic entity, a force to be reckoned with and a potential partner for the foreign powers to negotiate with. As soon as the Army starts taking sides, the revolution can easily become civil war.

The situation is so complex and volatile, that international reactions have been shaky, to say the least. In the last couple of days, American and European leaders seem to have understood that Hosni Mubarak is a dead politician, like it or not. Some other Arab leaders in countries surrounding Egypt can see the end of their regimes approaching quickly. If the revolution is not contained in Egypt (and it seems it will not be), the movement will spread abroad. This is not a Revolution similar to what Europe had in 1848, leading to the modernization of the continent by expressing the national entities and creating national states. The Arab World is divided by purely administrative borders. In fact, one people/one meta-nation live in the area and will act like one. This is something that may elude the understanding of the Western politicians. The road from tribal to modern state has been detoured via artificial countries resulted at the end of the European colonization of Northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.

So, what’s next?

Forget Mubarak, who pledges not to leave the country. He is history. Good or bad, he’s played his part. The longer the unrest lasts, the harder the local economy will be hit and the deeper the conflict in the Egyptian society will grow.

Poverty and instability lead to more violence and violence spreads across borders with basic revolutionary ideology.

If countries like Yemen, Jordan and maybe Saudi Arabia get involved in this uprising, the Muslim will, by means of coup d’état  and/or the number game of the democratic elections, become potentially hard-line Islamic states and the regional power of Iran will grow.

The first to worry will be Israel and the US, and then the whole international community will suffer due to the effect of the crisis on the oil market. Countries like Russia, Venezuela, Norway and Nigeria may benefit straight away.

It is likely that other large Muslim countries, mainly Indonesia and Pakistan, will try to take advantage of the opening of this Pandora’s Box. The US will have to act in a military manner and Europe, very dependent energetically, will have to follow.

Communist China is the dormant giant to be watched for. They dealt with Tienanmen Square so swiftly, after all.