mockoblog

Seven days after the Egypt uprising started, Hosni Mubarak is buying time.

He knows his reign is over but he also knows his predecessor, Anwar El Sadat, perhaps more popular and respected, ended up with a bullet in his chest, meters away from where Mubarak himself was standing.

The 82 year old president needs to accomplish three objectives before he leaves the country – yes, this is the only option left for him at this stage:

1. he has to destroy as much as possible of the information that links him and his close allies to any corruption or more severe crimes;

2. he must secure the moneys an other valuables (30 years old dictatorships, even rather benign ones, tend to gather a bit of cash) will be easy to access if and when and where he is overseas and prosecuted (Swiss banks are no more safe heavens from this point of view);

3. he is perhaps negotiating to find a country to harbour him and his dearest long term – the main candidate would be the USA, to which he’s been a good team player, however, the USA will have to make do with the following regime and has no interest to upset a new Egyptian government (this is what happened when the last Shah of Iran, the exiled and dying Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, hoped to find refuge in the USA).

Yet the fate of Mr Mubarak is less important. The future of Islam and indeed the fate of the whole World could be at stake.

If democratic elections are held in Egypt, the Muslims will undoubtedly win a vast majority. Even with a moderate government, assuming that Mohamed Elbaradei becomes the president, it is unlikely that Egypt’s policy towards Israel and even the USA will maintain status qvo. This is a gunpowder barrel to watch.

The paradox of democracy is that it never worked in a volatile environment. And what more flammable situation than what we experience now in the Middle East? Extrapolating,  between Islam and Judeo-Christianity, even beyond, on a planet where the only superpower is loosing ground on every direction, excepting the military one, what is happening in Egypt could be seen as a new Sarajevo, the starting point of  World War III, the pretext for a reshuffle of the international draw cards.

Actually, a Sarajevo-type event took place in New York ten years ago, with the attack on the Twin Towers but it is only know that the ball is in the moderate Arabs’ court, which indicates the maximum level of insecurity for this type of play.  This is not George W. Bush versus the Taliban. This is no joke. It’s the big cutting of the cake and anyone wants a good slice of it.

For the next year or two, watch countries like Iran, Dubai and its associated emirates, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Libya, Turkey, Pakistan (the only Muslim nuclear country), Azerbaijan, both Korean states, Venezuela, Cuba, Nigeria, France, Italy, Serbia, Greece and the Vatican.

As strange as it may seem, a major international crisis can achieve a few positive changes:

1. a massive boost for the global economy;

2. a redistribution of the power balance, perhaps with China dominating the East and the Pacific, the USA, Europe and Russia controlling the North and the Atlantic, India acting as a world umpire;

3. oceanic and African resources being shared more evenly;

4. less religious hatred with the humiliation of Islam and minimization of the other major monotheistic trends;

5. exponential scientific  progress in information, energy (oil will be made redundant sooner than expected) and genetics, leading to the need of a global governance, with the aim of colonizing the outer space (large corporations to act first, as they are better prepared for a changing world than governments).

It is very unlikely that those changes will occur without high loss of life. Mass-murder weapons could be deployed and entire populations may be eradicated.

The way Hosni Mubarak will leave Egypt should give us some indication of where everything is heading to. Watch the mockoblog during these interesting and dangerous times and hope you are on the winning side, as there may be no neutral options.